Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England; a mathematical modelling study
Published in ‘The Lancet Public Health’, 2023
Recommended citation: ‘Imai, N., Rawson, T., et. al. (2023). "Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England; a mathematical modelling study." The Lancet Public Health. 1(1).’ ‘https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00337-1’
This research evaluated the consequences of England’s decision to extend the interval between COVID-19 vaccine doses from 3 to 12 weeks. Utilizing a model of virus transmission and calibrating it to actual data, the study compared potential outcomes had England maintained the initial 3-week gap. Results indicated that the prolonged 12-week interval led to fewer hospitalizations and deaths, providing more individuals with at least partial vaccine-induced protection in the midst of a growing epidemic. The decision, influenced by early data and limited vaccine supply, proved beneficial in reducing COVID-19’s overall burden.